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Brand Keys has done a lot of political engagement metrics over the years, mostly for Presidential elections and just like the Father of Our Country, real engagement measures cannot tell a lie. At least when it comes to predicting consumer behavior. In this specific case, the election booth, and generally in the marketplace.

Last June, when real estate tycoon, reality TV star, human brand, and hair icon, Donald Trump, officially launched his campaign for President of the United States a lot of you thought, ”He’s got to be kidding.” OK, you weren’t alone. But we conducted an emotional engagement poll of our own and – as is usually the case with engagement metrics – it gave us a predictive read on the outcome. An 84% approval rating among Republicans, which is proving out in the real world.

Anyway, it’s Oscar time again, but we’re not going step into that particular political arena where you can’t have missed that accusations have been made that the Oscars are only looking to celebrate the whitest of its content, creators, and artistes with zero out of 20 nominations going to non-white actors. The only celebrities-of-color onstage will be award presenters and that has some folks up in arms.

We can’t offer you any odds on how that’s going to effect future Academy Award nominations or elections or advertiser and viewer engagement, but just like last year we’ve offered up some engagement-based odds on who’ll win the Academy Awards in the “big” categories – based upon our predictive engagement assessments. We did really well last year. Please note we provide these for entertainment value only. If you’re looking to engage in some moneymaking outcomes, you’re on your own, although it’s generally a bad idea to bet against emotional engagement in any category. Anyway, here’s this year’s engagement odds:

BEST PICTURE
The Big Short 6/1
Bridge of Spies 200/1
Brooklyn                   200/1
Mad Max: Fury Road         150/1
The Martian                                     100/1
The Revenant          1/2
Room             100/1
Spotlight       5/2
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo 80/1
Matt Damon, The Martian             100/1
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant 1/66
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs 25/1
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl 20/1
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE  
Cate Blanchett, Carol 40/1
Brie Larson, Room 1/33
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy 66/1
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years 66/1
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn 1/4
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE  
Christian Bale, The Big Short 25/1
Tom Hardy, The Revenant 16/1
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight 50/1
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies 5/2
Sylvester Stallone, Creed 1/3
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE  
Jennifer Jason Leigh, Hateful Eight 5/1
Rooney Mara, Carol 5/1
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight 100/1
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl 4/9
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs 3/1
DIRECTING  
The Big Short 22/1
Mad Max: Fury Road 7/1
The Revenant 1/10
Room 120/1
Spotlight 20/1

The 2016 Academy Awards will air Sunday, February 28, 2016 on ABC, those were the emotional engagement odds for each of the key categories, and we wish all the nominees and viewers all the best.

For the advertisers who paid a reported $1.8 – 2.2 million per thirty-second commercial, we calculate the odds of advertising engagement success to be about 8 to 1 given past performance statistics and the current list of sponsors, so it might be worth remembering the words of Walt Disney, who noted, “We don’t make movies to make money, we make money to make movies.”

 


Find out more about what makes customer loyalty happen and how Brand Keys metrics is able to predict future consumer behavior: brandkeys.com. Visit our YouTube channel to learn more about Brand Keys methodology, applications and case studies.

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